CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-01-20T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28649/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the south/southeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is a filament eruption on the Earth-facing disk stretching from S15E00 to S15E35, with liftoff starting around 2024-01-20T08:27Z. This CME overlaps with another filament eruption on the NE limb which resulted in CME:2024-01-20T09:36Z. | [PRELIMINARY] CME Arrival Note: potential combined arrival of this CME and the CME seen at 2024-01-21T00:36Z beginning around 16:00Z with B_total increase to ~14 nT. This arrival appears to be followed by a solar sector boundary crossing starting around 2024-01-23T19:30Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T16:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-22T13:19Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/28654/1 Model Inputs: 2024-01-20T09:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-18.0, Lat.=-22.0, Speed=978.0, HalfAngle=47.0, Time21.5=2024-01-20T12:49Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-01-22T13:19Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =24.8 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.3 (kp)90=5 (kp)180=7 Other Location(s) Impact: Psyche with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-23T19:20Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T12:09Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-01-22T11:24Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240120_124900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gifLead Time: 47.38 hour(s)
Difference: 2.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-01-20T16:38Z
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